So the technology sector slumped, our switch to "the new normal" may not have happened as completely or rapidly as first believed. Investors have been running in a panic to hide from volatility and recoup the bad bets that rocketed firms to audacious multiples.
(When you're in a space as transitory as technology — yet valued at a 100x ARR multiple while being easier to cancel than netflix… I mean c'mon )
Knowing that there has been an over exposed talent war: publicly listed companies are being rewarded by the street for cuts and layoffs. Not that many need to - the margins are amazing in tech. But this is creating a negative feedback loop. Like headcount cuts are somehow the new blockchain, or cloud, or [inset your trend]. Investors like it - Meta jumped 13% and didn't have to deliver any new value to their customers. Layoffs today are an easy meal for the attention starved stock; that's verifiable.
Sadly now we are seeing a phase where organizations that hired where their growth is (and remains) rightly not wanting to lose critical momentum at a critical time. So instead they are shedding employees with vast tribal memory and institutional knowledge to have cake and eat it.
It's hard to measure the ROI on BAU talent. Even harder to quantify the long term bottom line impact of individuals who have been consistently brilliant for a long time and now taken for granted. But you'll miss them when they are gone. Sadly investors are rewarding short-term thinking. And sadder still for some, these decisions have short term existential consequences for the decision makers individual careers. So we’ll see more of it, from organizations who know better but proceed anyway with their eyes wide open.
With all this gloom, I'm a little optimistic. The world is still becoming software. Water is still wet.
There are way more deserving challenges than the FAANG's of the world. Energy, Healthcare, Local Government, MedTech, Security & Defence. They're all still transforming because the need to and the value in doing so is irrefutable.
So now that these non-idolized groups can even play the game. What are they gonna do? I'm looking forward to seeing outcomes.